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The Justice Department is investigating whether Nvidia’s deal with AI chipmaker Groq last year was structured to avoid the antitrust scrutiny that comes with a traditional merger.
In a nutshell, the deal falls short of an outright acquisition– it licensed Groq’s technology, while Nvidia hired two of Groq’s top executives. It’s a type of arrangement often referred to as an “acqui-hire,” in which a company hires another company’s key employees rather than buying the business outright.
According to Lauren Hirsch and David McCabe at The New York Times:
Our take? The most important sentence in the Times piece is the one that says the deal is unlikely to be undone. Read that again: If Nvidia’s worst case is a fine, it’s a fine Nvidia surely will be able to pay. And if the ticket for parking in the fire lane costs less than the garage, the fire lane fills up. Expect a lot of parking.
The deeper problem is that antitrust law was written for a world in which the company was the asset. In AI, the company is the wrapper– the real assets are a few dozen engineers and the code in their heads, and both can walk out the door on a Tuesday.
Merger review asks “who owns it?” when the question that matters is “who controls it?” Our prediction: within a couple of years, the government stops trying to prove bad intent one deal at a time and simply adds a reporting trigger for licensing-plus-hiring deals above a dollar threshold, the same way it already does for mergers. Until then, the letter of the law is on Nvidia’s side, and Big Tech reads the letter of the law very carefully.
You have to give Big Tech points for creativity. We’ve already seen circular AI deals, where established giants buy from or invest in baby giants, and those baby giants then use the cash to spend heavily on making their services better for the established giants (check out this past issue). “Acqui-hires” offer another unconventional way to structure a deal– allowing a company to get the crux of what it actually wants, namely the tech and the people, without buying the company outright.
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